European Crisis to end in 2012
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The ECB "Bazooka"
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The ECB "bazooka" came in form of unlimited, low interest, long term 3 years loans to European banks. While this is not what the market wanted (a blanked guarantee or unlimited purchase of European Sovereigns) the latest ECB move solves the big problem of bank refinancing in 2012. This also reduced or neutralized the risk that European banks would stop lending with catastrophic consequences for the already fragile European economies.
As the Sovereign crisis is in many regards a crisis of confidence it could also be that many European mid size and small banks will take advantage of the carry trade and start buying European Government bonds more aggressively.
While this might not be sufficient in the long term if we combine this action with the long term debt reduction austerity measures undertaken by many Governments, like Italy, by restoring confidence in the market it could be helpful in leading to final resolution of the crisis in 2012.
End of the Crisis in 2012
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I see the end of the European crisis in 2012. This will happen after the first quarter that will remain volatile. This because Europe, due to their unique decision making structure, needs time to achieve fiscal unity. This does not mean that 2012 will be an easy year. There are still many unknown variables and risks:
1) Political risk: given the broad consensus needed to take any decision the political risk (and change of sentiment) remains the highest;
2) Further downgrades might force more drastic actions;
3) Banks could use the new facility for their own needs and limit their exposure to Sovereigns and limit their lending to small and mid size companies.
To solve the crisis in 2012 we need not just a wall of money for the banks but a wall of money, through loans, transferred to the real economy.
The improving U.S. Economy will also help in avoiding a global crisis.
Reader Commentary
at 11:14 am
Dr. Costa's conclusions are beyond gainsaying. They are well-informed and I concur totally; the world is gearing for an end to the global financial crisis due to the multi-faceted approach of the US and EU governments. More sensitivity is being applied in corporate governance issues and prudence is coming back to banking structures and practices. The multinational and multilateral approach to global banking and accounting methods will also yield positive results for world economy.
at 12:32 pm
One really hopes that Dr. Da Costa's informed predictions will materialise because if the financial crisis gets worse in Europe and the United Stats, it will affect the rest of the world especially Africa where national economies had been improving in the recent times.
at 11:17 am
Yes!!!,by the countries and economy, creator's grace.
Happy y2k12!!!.